Pollster flags Trump voter phenomenon that may be causing polls to underestimate Dems

Some people who voted for Donald Trump in 2024 now say they didn’t, a shift that may be causing polls to understate Democratic support, according to pollster G. Elliott Morris.Morris says many pollsters adjust their samples so the portion reporting a 2024 Trump vote lines up with the real result. The trouble comes if disillusioned Trump voters stop admitting it. Then those who still say they backed him are more devoted than his actual coalition, and bumping them up to match his true share would exaggerate how many hard-core supporters there are.In September, Morris used simulations to estimate this “recalled vote bias” was trimming Democrats’ lead on the generic ballot by roughly 0.8 points. His October Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll let him test it directly. Verasight keeps each panelist’s 2024 vote from when they joined, so he compared those answers to what 2,028 respondents said now.Most answered the same way....